Dhaka: Myanmar has taken a step toward resolving the long-running Rohingya crisis by confirming that hundreds of thousands of Rohingya refugees currently living in Bangladesh are former residents of Rakhine State and could eventually return to Myanmar.
Myanmar’s Foreign Ministry said the verification process has identified more than 300,000 displaced people as former residents of Rakhine. However, the country has made it clear that repatriation cannot begin immediately. The return process will depend heavily on whether the security situation in Rakhine improves.
The development comes nearly nine years after the massive 2017 exodus, when more than 700,000 Rohingya fled Myanmar for Bangladesh following a military crackdown in Rakhine State. They joined hundreds of thousands of Rohingya who had arrived in Bangladesh during earlier waves of violence.
Today, around 1.3 million Rohingya are living in Bangladesh, most of them in overcrowded camps in Cox’s Bazar.
More than 300,000 refugees verified
According to Myanmar’s latest figures, Bangladesh submitted a list of 828,824 refugees for verification. Myanmar said it had examined 426,545 cases by the end of July and determined that 308,797 people were former residents of Rakhine State.
The country rejected 113,507 applications as unverified and identified another 4,241 people whom it alleged were involved in terrorist activities.
Myanmar’s Foreign Ministry said it would continue working with Bangladesh to facilitate the return of those who have been verified—but only when conditions in Rakhine become sufficiently stable.
Security remains the biggest obstacle
The announcement does not mean that hundreds of thousands of Rohingya will be returning to Myanmar anytime soon.
Rakhine State remains deeply unstable, with fighting between Myanmar’s military-backed government and the Arakan Army continuing to reshape control of the region. The Arakan Army currently controls large parts of Rakhine, making any repatriation plan considerably more complicated.
Previous attempts to repatriate Rohingya refugees have repeatedly failed because of concerns over security, citizenship, housing and basic rights.
For many Rohingya refugees, simply returning to Myanmar is not enough. They have consistently demanded guarantees of safety, citizenship, freedom of movement and fundamental rights before agreeing to go back.
Bangladesh still faces enormous pressure
The prolonged refugee crisis has placed a major humanitarian and economic burden on Bangladesh.
Years of life inside crowded camps, declining international aid and limited employment and education opportunities have increasingly pushed some Rohingya to consider dangerous journeys by sea toward Malaysia and Indonesia.
Bangladesh has repeatedly argued that safe, voluntary and dignified repatriation to Myanmar remains the only sustainable long-term solution.
The latest verification announcement could therefore represent a potential opening for renewed negotiations—but it does not yet provide a clear timetable for actual repatriation.
A possible breakthrough, but no immediate return
Myanmar’s willingness to recognise more than 300,000 refugees as former residents of Rakhine is significant because previous repatriation efforts have remained largely stalled.
But the central question remains unanswered: When will conditions in Rakhine become safe enough for them to return?
Until the security situation improves and credible guarantees are provided, the majority of Rohingya refugees are likely to remain in Bangladesh.
For Dhaka, the latest development offers a possible diplomatic opening. For the Rohingya, however, the real test will not be Myanmar’s promise to accept them—it will be whether they can return safely, voluntarily and with their basic rights protected.
